Elections · Insight
Marginal seats: the 2021 election
How close each of the 73 constituency contests was, and whether MSPs who won narrowly behave differently from those who won easily. The 56 regional MSPs are elected from party lists and have no majority of their own.
Seats won by under 5 points
7
Typical majority
19.5%
Closest result
0.4%
Do MSPs in tight seats behave differently?
Averages per constituency MSP elected in 2021, over Session 6. Votes against party are recorded divisions where the MSP voted differently from most of their party.
| Majority | MSPs | Votes cast (of 1,201) | Votes against party | Motions signed | Signed across party lines | Questions asked | Motions lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight under 5 points | 7 | 1,124 | 2.1 | 3,392 | 30% | 383 | 180 |
| Close 5 to 10 points | 9 | 1,086 | 5.6 | 2,094 | 44% | 328 | 116 |
| Comfortable 10 to 20 points | 23 | 1,080 | 5.9 | 2,425 | 35% | 130 | 191 |
| Safe 20 points or more | 34 | 1,075 | 4.0 | 2,220 | 42% | 142 | 158 |
Read with care. The groups are small and parties are not spread evenly across the bands (tight seats are not a cross-section of parties), so differences may reflect party, role (ministers ask no questions) or chance rather than the size of the majority. Holyrood voting is heavily whipped, so votes against party are rare everywhere. This is a comparison, not evidence that any MSP acts to please particular voters; voting is secret, so no data shows who elected whom.
| Constituency | Won by | Runner-up | Majority | Turnout | Majority smaller than |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr | Siobhian Brown SNP | Conservative | 170 0.4% Tight |
68% | Labour 4,766, Lib Dem 808, Scotia Future 267 |
| Banffshire and Buchan Coast | Karen Adam SNP | Conservative | 772 2.3% Tight |
56% | Labour 2,169, Lib Dem 1,071 |
| East Lothian | Paul McLennan SNP | Labour | 1,179 2.6% Tight |
69% | Conservative 9,470, Lib Dem 1,566 |
| Dumbarton | Jackie Baillie Lab | SNP | 1,483 3.9% Tight |
69% | Conservative 3,205 |
| Aberdeen South and North Kincardine | Audrey Nicoll SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 1,671 4.3% Tight |
64% | Labour 4,505, Lib Dem 2,889 |
| Perthshire South and Kinross-shire | Jim Fairlie SNP | Conservative | 1,948 4.4% Tight |
70% | Labour 2,943, Lib Dem 2,823 |
| Aberdeenshire East | Gillian Martin SNP | Conservative | 1,889 4.6% Tight |
64% | Lib Dem 3,396, Labour 2,900 |
| Eastwood | Jackson Carlaw Con no longer an MSP |
SNP | 2,216 5.2% Close |
76% | Labour 6,759 |
| Shetland | Beatrice Wishart LD no longer an MSP |
SNP | 806 6.8% Close |
66% | – |
| Caithness, Sutherland and Ross | Maree Todd SNP | Lib Dem | 2,591 7.0% Close |
65% | Conservative 5,170 |
| Galloway and West Dumfries | Finlay Carson Con | SNP | 2,635 7.1% Close |
65% | Labour 2,932 |
| Moray | Richard Lochhead SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 3,164 7.7% Close |
65% | – |
| Aberdeenshire West | Alexander Burnett Con | SNP | 3,390 8.1% Close |
70% | – |
| Edinburgh Southern | Daniel Johnson Lab | SNP | 4,022 8.9% Close |
71% | Conservative 5,258 |
| Dumfriesshire | Oliver Mundell Con no longer an MSP |
SNP | 4,066 9.9% Close |
66% | Labour 4,671 |
| Angus North and Mearns | Mairi Gougeon SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 3,509 10.0% Close |
64% | – |
| Perthshire North | John Swinney SNP | Conservative | 4,053 10.1% Comfortable |
70% | – |
| Edinburgh Pentlands | Gordon MacDonald SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 3,897 10.2% Comfortable |
65% | Labour 6,998 |
| Clydesdale | Màiri McAllan SNP | Conservative | 4,578 11.2% Comfortable |
67% | Labour 8,960 |
| Edinburgh Central | Angus Robertson SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 4,732 11.3% Comfortable |
63% | Labour 6,839 |
| Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley | Elena Whitham SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 4,337 12.2% Comfortable |
60% | Labour 8,604 |
| Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse | Christina McKelvie SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 4,582 12.6% Comfortable |
61% | Conservative 6,332 |
| Rutherglen | Clare Haughey SNP | Labour | 5,166 12.9% Comfortable |
63% | – |
| Clydebank and Milngavie | Marie McNair SNP | Labour | 5,274 14.0% Comfortable |
68% | – |
| Uddingston and Bellshill | Stephanie Callaghan SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 5,306 14.7% Comfortable |
61% | – |
| Glasgow Kelvin | Kaukab Stewart SNP no longer an MSP |
Green | 5,458 15.1% Comfortable |
55% | Labour 8,605 |
| Angus South | Graeme Dey SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 6,117 15.8% Comfortable |
65% | – |
| Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale | Christine Grahame SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 6,826 15.9% Comfortable |
66% | – |
| Stirling | Evelyn Tweed SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 6,895 16.9% Comfortable |
69% | – |
| Airdrie and Shotts | Neil Gray SNP | Labour | 5,468 17.1% Comfortable |
59% | – |
| Paisley | George Adam SNP | Labour | 6,075 17.4% Comfortable |
63% | – |
| Cowdenbeath | Annabelle Ewing SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 6,013 17.6% Comfortable |
61% | – |
| North East Fife | Willie Rennie LD | SNP | 7,448 18.5% Comfortable |
69% | – |
| Midlothian North and Musselburgh | Colin Beattie SNP | Labour | 7,906 18.6% Comfortable |
62% | – |
| Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire | Rachael Hamilton Con | SNP | 6,863 19.0% Comfortable |
64% | – |
| Renfrewshire North and West | Natalie Don-Innes SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 7,307 19.1% Comfortable |
68% | Conservative 8,734 |
| Falkirk East | Michelle Thomson SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 7,585 19.5% Comfortable |
63% | Conservative 7,618 |
| Glasgow Anniesland | Bill Kidd SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 6,588 19.9% Comfortable |
59% | – |
| Inverness and Nairn | Fergus Ewing SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 9,114 19.9% Comfortable |
65% | – |
| Renfrewshire South | Tom Arthur SNP | Labour | 7,106 20.5% Safe |
66% | – |
| Aberdeen Central | Kevin Stewart SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 6,594 20.8% Safe |
56% | – |
| Cunninghame North | Kenneth Gibson SNP | Conservative | 7,776 20.9% Safe |
65% | – |
| Glasgow Pollok | Humza Yousaf SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 7,105 21.0% Safe |
54% | – |
| Edinburgh Western | Alex Cole-Hamilton LD | SNP | 9,885 21.1% Safe |
71% | – |
| Dunfermline | Shirley-Anne Somerville SNP | Labour | 8,664 21.2% Safe |
66% | – |
| East Kilbride | Collette Stevenson SNP | Labour | 8,672 21.3% Safe |
67% | – |
| Linlithgow | Fiona Hyslop SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 10,105 21.6% Safe |
62% | – |
| Clackmannanshire and Dunblane | Keith Brown SNP | Conservative | 7,551 21.6% Safe |
66% | Labour 8,292 |
| Kirkcaldy | David Torrance SNP | Labour | 7,831 22.3% Safe |
58% | – |
| Greenock and Inverclyde | Stuart McMillan SNP | Labour | 8,174 22.5% Safe |
64% | – |
| Motherwell and Wishaw | Clare Adamson SNP | Labour | 7,813 22.9% Safe |
59% | – |
| Edinburgh Eastern | Ash Regan SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 10,117 23.4% Safe |
61% | – |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar | Dr Alasdair Allan SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 3,441 23.7% Safe |
66% | – |
| Glasgow Provan | Ivan McKee SNP | Labour | 7,230 24.0% Safe |
53% | – |
| Edinburgh Northern and Leith | Ben Macpherson SNP | Labour | 11,569 24.7% Safe |
63% | – |
| Strathkelvin and Bearsden | Rona Mackay SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 11,484 24.8% Safe |
72% | – |
| Glasgow Shettleston | John Mason SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 8,025 25.0% Safe |
54% | – |
| Aberdeen Donside | Jackie Dunbar SNP | Conservative | 9,026 25.1% Safe |
58% | – |
| Coatbridge and Chryston | Fulton MacGregor SNP | Labour | 9,437 26.4% Safe |
63% | – |
| Cunninghame South | Ruth Maguire SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 7,952 26.4% Safe |
58% | – |
| Argyll and Bute | Jenni Minto SNP | Conservative | 8,963 26.7% Safe |
68% | – |
| Glasgow Cathcart | James Dornan SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 10,396 27.3% Safe |
63% | – |
| Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn | Bob Doris SNP | Labour | 7,924 28.4% Safe |
52% | – |
| Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley | Willie Coffey SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 11,681 28.8% Safe |
62% | – |
| Glasgow Southside | Nicola Sturgeon SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 9,456 28.8% Safe |
60% | – |
| Almond Valley | Angela Constance SNP | Labour | 12,130 29.0% Safe |
61% | – |
| Cumbernauld and Kilsyth | Jamie Hepburn SNP | Labour | 9,841 29.4% Safe |
65% | – |
| Falkirk West | Michael Matheson SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 11,839 29.9% Safe |
62% | – |
| Mid Fife and Glenrothes | Jenny Gilruth SNP | Labour | 10,234 31.3% Safe |
60% | – |
| Orkney | Liam McArthur LD | SNP | 3,869 33.4% Safe |
66% | – |
| Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch | Kate Forbes SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 15,861 36.8% Safe |
69% | – |
| Dundee City West | Joe FitzPatrick SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 12,919 40.2% Safe |
57% | – |
| Dundee City East | Shona Robison SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 13,337 41.1% Safe |
59% | – |
"Majority smaller than" lists parties outside the top two whose vote exceeded the winning majority: if enough of their voters switched, the seat could change hands. The published results combine all independent candidates in a seat into one "Independents" figure. Majority as a share of valid votes; turnout as published. Source: Electoral Management Board for Scotland, 6 May 2021 results.