Elections · Insight

Marginal seats: the 2026 election

How close each of the 73 constituency contests was, and whether MSPs who won narrowly behave differently from those who won easily. The 56 regional MSPs are elected from party lists and have no majority of their own.

Seats won by under 5 points

of 73 constituencies

Typical majority

14.5%

median, share of valid votes

Closest result

1.2%

Inverness and Nairn, 427 votes

Do MSPs in tight seats behave differently?

Averages per constituency MSP still sitting, from the election to the latest data. Votes against party are recorded divisions where the MSP voted differently from most of their party.

Majority	MSPs	Votes cast (of 196)	Votes against party	Motions signed	Signed across party lines	Questions asked	Motions lodged
Tight under 5 points	9	177	0.2	90	25%	36	17
Close 5 to 10 points	14	189	0.2	196	42%	44	17
Comfortable 10 to 20 points	34	172	0.2	139	27%	20	17
Safe 20 points or more	16	185	0.4	153	28%	24	26

Read with care. The groups are small, the session is only months old, and parties are not spread evenly across the bands (most tight seats are SNP holds), so differences may reflect party, role (ministers ask no questions) or chance rather than the size of the majority. Holyrood voting is heavily whipped, so votes against party are rare everywhere. This is a comparison, not evidence that any MSP acts to please particular voters; voting is secret, so no data shows who elected whom.

Every constituency

Sort: closest first name turnout

Constituency	Won by	Runner-up	Majority	Turnout	Majority smaller than
Inverness and Nairn Highlands and Islands	Emma Roddick SNP	Lib Dem	427 1.2% Tight	55%	Independents 7,840, Reform UK 3,791, Labour 1,723, Conservative 1,372
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs Edinburgh and Lothians East	Paul McLennan SNP	Labour	418 1.2% Tight	60%	Conservative 4,719, Reform UK 4,611, Lib Dem 2,802, Independents 597
Banffshire and Buchan Coast North East Scotland	Karen Adam SNP	Reform UK	364 1.2% Tight	48%	Conservative 6,348, Lib Dem 1,162, Labour 1,049, Independents 555
Na h-Eileanan an Iar Highlands and Islands	Donald MacKinnon Lab	SNP	154 1.3% Tight	57%	Reform UK 1,625, Lib Dem 812, Conservative 594, Alliance to Liberate Scotland 159
Eastwood West Scotland	Kirsten Oswald SNP	Conservative	732 1.9% Tight	66%	Labour 8,368, Reform UK 3,453, Lib Dem 1,748
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch Highlands and Islands	Andrew Baxter LD	SNP	950 2.4% Tight	58%	Reform UK 4,669, Conservative 2,731, Labour 1,751
Aberdeenshire East North East Scotland	Gillian Martin SNP	Conservative	943 2.7% Tight	56%	Reform UK 7,008, Lib Dem 3,999, Labour 1,487
Dumfriesshire South Scotland	Craig Hoy Con	SNP	1,108 3.4% Tight	52%	Reform UK 5,783, Labour 3,364, Lib Dem 1,660
Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine North East Scotland	Stephen Flynn SNP	Conservative	1,244 3.6% Tight	55%	Reform UK 6,113, Lib Dem 2,880, Labour 2,805
Galloway and West Dumfries South Scotland	Finlay Carson Con	SNP	1,599 5.3% Close	52%	Reform UK 4,674, Labour 2,544
Dumbarton West Scotland	Jackie Baillie Lab	SNP	1,786 5.6% Close	57%	Reform UK 5,040
Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill Glasgow	Bob Doris SNP	Green	2,171 6.4% Close	56%	Labour 7,531, Reform UK 3,592
Strathkelvin and Bearsden West Scotland	Adam Harley LD	SNP	2,572 6.5% Close	63%	Labour 4,678, Reform UK 4,154
Edinburgh Northern Edinburgh and Lothians East	Sanne Dijkstra-Downie LD	SNP	2,493 6.7% Close	57%	Green 5,289, Labour 3,744, Reform UK 2,867
Glasgow Southside Glasgow	Holly Bruce Green	SNP	3,101 8.1% Close	59%	Labour 7,300
Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith Edinburgh and Lothians East	Ben Macpherson SNP	Green	3,071 8.1% Close	57%	Labour 7,894
Moray Highlands and Islands	Laura Mitchell SNP	Conservative	2,673 8.2% Close	51%	Reform UK 5,440
Midlothian North Edinburgh and Lothians East	Colin Beattie SNP	Labour	2,496 8.6% Close	51%	Reform UK 4,506
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse South Scotland	Alex Kerr SNP	Labour	2,705 8.6% Close	50%	Reform UK 7,193
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley South Scotland	Katie Hagmann SNP	Reform UK	2,622 9.0% Close	49%	Labour 6,671, Conservative 3,680
Argyll and Bute Highlands and Islands	Jenni Minto SNP	Lib Dem	2,551 9.3% Close	56%	Reform UK 3,678
Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley West Scotland	Tom Arthur SNP	Labour	3,271 9.6% Close	54%	Reform UK 5,844
Paisley West Scotland	George Adam SNP	Labour	3,028 9.8% Close	51%	Reform UK 4,620
Edinburgh South Western Edinburgh and Lothians East	Simita Kumar SNP	Labour	3,289 10.2% Comfortable	54%	Conservative 4,636, Reform UK 3,936, Lib Dem 3,672
Angus North and Mearns North East Scotland	Dawn Black SNP	Conservative	3,250 11.2% Comfortable	53%	Reform UK 4,844
Clydesdale South Scotland	Màiri McAllan SNP	Labour	4,388 12.3% Comfortable	57%	Reform UK 7,898
Uddingston and Bellshill Central Scotland and Lothians West	Steven Bonnar SNP	Labour	3,584 12.4% Comfortable	49%	Reform UK 5,646
Ayr South Scotland	Siobhian Brown SNP	Conservative	4,400 12.5% Comfortable	56%	Labour 6,394, Reform UK 5,355
Edinburgh Southern Edinburgh and Lothians East	Daniel Johnson Lab	SNP	4,963 12.6% Comfortable	61%	–
Edinburgh Central Edinburgh and Lothians East	Lorna Slater Green	Labour	4,582 13.0% Comfortable	55%	SNP 7,702
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane Mid Scotland and Fife	Keith Brown SNP	Labour	4,264 13.2% Comfortable	57%	Reform UK 5,181
Shetland Islands Highlands and Islands	Hannah Mary Goodlad SNP	Lib Dem	1,517 13.2% Comfortable	64%	–
Clydebank and Milngavie West Scotland	Marie McNair SNP	Labour	4,197 13.3% Comfortable	58%	Reform UK 4,510, Lib Dem 4,419
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire Mid Scotland and Fife	Jim Fairlie SNP	Conservative	5,061 13.9% Comfortable	59%	Reform UK 5,128
Renfrewshire North and Cardonald West Scotland	Michelle Campbell SNP	Labour	4,876 13.9% Comfortable	54%	Reform UK 7,083
Cunninghame South West Scotland	Patricia Gibson SNP	Labour	4,167 14.2% Comfortable	49%	Reform UK 7,049
Falkirk East and Linlithgow Central Scotland and Lothians West	Martyn Day SNP	Labour	5,435 14.5% Comfortable	55%	Reform UK 7,906
East Kilbride South Scotland	Collette Stevenson SNP	Labour	4,944 14.6% Comfortable	56%	Reform UK 5,683
Glasgow Anniesland Glasgow	Colm Merrick SNP	Labour	4,659 15.1% Comfortable	52%	Reform UK 4,839
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley South Scotland	Alan Brown SNP	Labour	4,461 15.3% Comfortable	51%	Reform UK 5,441
Aberdeen Donside North East Scotland	Jackie Dunbar SNP	Reform UK	4,731 15.5% Comfortable	48%	–
Aberdeenshire West North East Scotland	Alexander Burnett Con	SNP	5,784 15.6% Comfortable	61%	–
Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent Edinburgh and Lothians East	Kate Campbell SNP	Labour	4,986 15.8% Comfortable	52%	–
Dunfermline Mid Scotland and Fife	Shirley-Anne Somerville SNP	Labour	5,437 15.9% Comfortable	53%	–
Glasgow Cathcart and Pollok Glasgow	Zen Ghani SNP	Labour	5,163 16.1% Comfortable	50%	Reform UK 5,320
Inverclyde West Scotland	Stuart McMillan SNP	Labour	5,317 16.6% Comfortable	52%	Reform UK 5,649
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross Highlands and Islands	David Green LD	SNP	5,092 16.7% Comfortable	54%	–
Bathgate Central Scotland and Lothians West	Pauline Stafford SNP	Labour	5,587 16.7% Comfortable	49%	Reform UK 7,511
Kirkcaldy Mid Scotland and Fife	David Torrance SNP	Labour	4,747 16.8% Comfortable	45%	Reform UK 5,484
Rutherglen and Cambuslang Glasgow	Clare Haughey SNP	Labour	5,844 17.3% Comfortable	52%	Reform UK 6,168
Perthshire North Mid Scotland and Fife	John Swinney SNP	Conservative	6,243 17.3% Comfortable	58%	–
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire South Scotland	Rachael Hamilton Con	SNP	5,277 17.5% Comfortable	53%	–
Airdrie Central Scotland and Lothians West	Neil Gray SNP	Labour	4,510 17.7% Comfortable	47%	Reform UK 5,821
Falkirk West Central Scotland and Lothians West	Gary Bouse SNP	Reform UK	6,736 18.7% Comfortable	52%	Labour 7,859
Glasgow Baillieston and Shettleston Glasgow	David Linden SNP	Reform UK	5,103 18.9% Comfortable	47%	Labour 5,885
Cunninghame North West Scotland	Kenneth Gibson SNP	Labour	5,792 19.2% Comfortable	54%	–
Glasgow Easterhouse and Springburn Glasgow	Ivan McKee SNP	Labour	5,154 20.0% Comfortable	44%	Reform UK 5,309
Motherwell and Wishaw Central Scotland and Lothians West	Clare Adamson SNP	Labour	5,515 20.2% Safe	47%	Reform UK 5,692
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale South Scotland	Calum Kerr SNP	Conservative	7,161 20.8% Safe	55%	–
Cowdenbeath Mid Scotland and Fife	David Barratt SNP	Labour	5,687 21.0% Safe	47%	–
Angus South North East Scotland	Lloyd Melville SNP	Conservative	6,608 21.1% Safe	53%	–
Coatbridge and Chryston Central Scotland and Lothians West	Fulton MacGregor SNP	Labour	6,776 23.0% Safe	50%	–
Stirling Mid Scotland and Fife	Alyn Smith SNP	Conservative	7,442 23.2% Safe	58%	–
Almond Valley Central Scotland and Lothians West	Angela Constance SNP	Labour	8,909 24.3% Safe	51%	–
Dundee City West North East Scotland	Heather Anderson SNP	Labour	6,357 24.5% Safe	46%	–
Aberdeen Central North East Scotland	Jack Middleton SNP	Labour	6,972 25.7% Safe	47%	–
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth Central Scotland and Lothians West	Jamie Hepburn SNP	Labour	7,315 27.0% Safe	54%	–
Mid Fife and Glenrothes Mid Scotland and Fife	Jenny Gilruth SNP	Reform UK	7,634 29.7% Safe	47%	–
Dundee City East North East Scotland	Stephen Gethins SNP	Labour	8,177 30.8% Safe	47%	–
Edinburgh North Western Edinburgh and Lothians East	Alex Cole-Hamilton LD	SNP	13,016 32.4% Safe	63%	–
Glasgow Central Glasgow	Alison Thewliss SNP	Labour	9,991 38.0% Safe	45%	–
Fife North East Mid Scotland and Fife	Willie Rennie LD	SNP	13,474 40.2% Safe	59%	–
Orkney Islands Highlands and Islands	Liam McArthur LD	SNP	5,560 54.1% Safe	58%	–

"Majority smaller than" lists parties outside the top two whose vote exceeded the winning majority: if enough of their voters switched, the seat could change hands. The published results combine all independent candidates in a seat into one "Independents" figure. Majority as a share of valid votes; turnout as published. Source: Electoral Management Board for Scotland, 7 May 2026 results.