Elections · Insight
Marginal seats: the 2016 election
How close each of the 73 constituency contests was, and whether MSPs who won narrowly behave differently from those who won easily. The 56 regional MSPs are elected from party lists and have no majority of their own.
Seats won by under 5 points
10
Typical majority
19.9%
Closest result
0.3%
Do MSPs in tight seats behave differently?
Averages per constituency MSP elected in 2016, over Session 5. Votes against party are recorded divisions where the MSP voted differently from most of their party.
| Majority | MSPs | Votes cast (of 821) | Votes against party | Motions signed | Signed across party lines | Questions asked | Motions lodged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight under 5 points | 10 | 710 | 1.9 | 2,165 | 28% | 488 | 127 |
| Close 5 to 10 points | 6 | 731 | 0.8 | 1,160 | 51% | 335 | 147 |
| Comfortable 10 to 20 points | 21 | 769 | 1.2 | 3,362 | 22% | 101 | 208 |
| Safe 20 points or more | 36 | 711 | 2.3 | 2,730 | 35% | 124 | 197 |
Read with care. The groups are small and parties are not spread evenly across the bands (tight seats are not a cross-section of parties), so differences may reflect party, role (ministers ask no questions) or chance rather than the size of the majority. Holyrood voting is heavily whipped, so votes against party are rare everywhere. This is a comparison, not evidence that any MSP acts to please particular voters; voting is secret, so no data shows who elected whom.
| Constituency | Won by | Runner-up | Majority | Turnout | Majority smaller than |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumbarton | Jackie Baillie Lab | SNP | 109 0.3% Tight |
61% | Conservative 4,891, Lib Dem 1,131, Independents 641 |
| Edinburgh Central | Ruth Davidson Con no longer an MSP |
SNP | 610 1.8% Tight |
58% | Labour 7,546, Green 4,644, Lib Dem 1,672 |
| Ayr | John Scott Con no longer an MSP |
SNP | 750 2.0% Tight |
61% | Labour 5,283 |
| Aberdeenshire West | Alexander Burnett Con | SNP | 900 2.6% Tight |
59% | Lib Dem 7,262, Labour 2,036 |
| Edinburgh Southern | Daniel Johnson Lab | SNP | 1,123 2.9% Tight |
65% | Conservative 9,972, Lib Dem 2,216 |
| East Lothian | Iain Gray Lab no longer an MSP |
SNP | 1,127 3.0% Tight |
63% | Conservative 9,045, Lib Dem 1,337 |
| Dumfriesshire | Oliver Mundell Con no longer an MSP |
SNP | 1,230 3.4% Tight |
60% | Labour 9,151, Lib Dem 1,267 |
| Perthshire South and Kinross-shire | Roseanna Cunningham SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 1,422 3.9% Tight |
61% | Labour 3,389, Lib Dem 3,008 |
| Eastwood | Jackson Carlaw Con no longer an MSP |
SNP | 1,610 4.4% Tight |
69% | Labour 11,081 |
| Galloway and West Dumfries | Finlay Carson Con | SNP | 1,514 4.5% Tight |
59% | Labour 4,876 |
| Edinburgh Pentlands | Gordon MacDonald SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 2,456 7.4% Close |
61% | Labour 7,811 |
| Edinburgh Western | Alex Cole-Hamilton LD | SNP | 2,960 7.4% Close |
65% | Conservative 5,686, Labour 3,750 |
| Angus North and Mearns | Mairi Gougeon SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 2,472 8.4% Close |
54% | Labour 2,752 |
| Aberdeen South and North Kincardine | Maureen Watt SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 2,755 8.5% Close |
54% | Labour 5,603 |
| Moray | Richard Lochhead SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 2,875 8.6% Close |
54% | Labour 3,547 |
| Perthshire North | John Swinney SNP | Conservative | 3,336 9.8% Close |
63% | – |
| North East Fife | Willie Rennie LD | SNP | 3,465 10.2% Comfortable |
63% | Conservative 5,646 |
| Cowdenbeath | Annabelle Ewing SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 3,041 10.2% Comfortable |
55% | Conservative 4,251 |
| Rutherglen | Clare Haughey SNP | Labour | 3,743 11.4% Comfortable |
55% | – |
| Caithness, Sutherland and Ross | Gail Ross SNP no longer an MSP |
Lib Dem | 3,913 12.2% Comfortable |
59% | Conservative 4,912 |
| Coatbridge and Chryston | Fulton MacGregor SNP | Labour | 3,779 13.3% Comfortable |
53% | – |
| Angus South | Graeme Dey SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 4,304 13.5% Comfortable |
57% | – |
| Dunfermline | Shirley-Anne Somerville SNP | Labour | 4,558 13.9% Comfortable |
57% | Conservative 5,797 |
| Glasgow Kelvin | Sandra White SNP no longer an MSP |
Green | 4,048 14.2% Comfortable |
46% | Labour 5,968 |
| Edinburgh Eastern | Ash Regan SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 5,087 14.4% Comfortable |
57% | Conservative 5,700 |
| Renfrewshire South | Tom Arthur SNP | Labour | 4,408 14.9% Comfortable |
60% | Conservative 4,752 |
| Uddingston and Bellshill | Richard Lyle SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 4,809 16.3% Comfortable |
52% | – |
| Aberdeen Central | Kevin Stewart SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 4,349 16.3% Comfortable |
47% | Conservative 6,022 |
| Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale | Christine Grahame SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 5,868 16.5% Comfortable |
59% | – |
| Aberdeenshire East | Gillian Martin SNP | Conservative | 5,837 16.8% Comfortable |
55% | Lib Dem 6,611 |
| Paisley | George Adam SNP | Labour | 5,199 17.7% Comfortable |
57% | – |
| Clydesdale | Aileen Campbell SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 5,979 17.7% Comfortable |
58% | Labour 6,995 |
| Edinburgh Northern and Leith | Ben Macpherson SNP | Labour | 6,746 18.2% Comfortable |
56% | – |
| Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse | Christina McKelvie SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 5,437 18.8% Comfortable |
50% | Conservative 5,596 |
| Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley | Jeane Freeman SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 6,006 19.0% Comfortable |
54% | Conservative 7,666 |
| Stirling | Bruce Crawford SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 6,718 19.7% Comfortable |
61% | Labour 6,885 |
| Glasgow Provan | Ivan McKee SNP | Labour | 4,783 19.9% Comfortable |
43% | – |
| Argyll and Bute | Michael Russell SNP no longer an MSP |
Lib Dem | 5,978 20.3% Safe |
61% | – |
| Midlothian North and Musselburgh | Colin Beattie SNP | Labour | 7,035 20.3% Safe |
55% | – |
| Strathkelvin and Bearsden | Rona Mackay SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 8,100 20.7% Safe |
63% | Labour 8,288 |
| Glasgow Anniesland | Bill Kidd SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 6,153 21.2% Safe |
50% | – |
| Motherwell and Wishaw | Clare Adamson SNP | Labour | 6,223 21.4% Safe |
51% | – |
| Cunninghame South | Ruth Maguire SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 5,693 22.2% Safe |
51% | – |
| Clackmannanshire and Dunblane | Keith Brown SNP | Labour | 6,721 22.6% Safe |
59% | Conservative 6,915 |
| Banffshire and Buchan Coast | Stewart Stevenson SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 6,583 23.0% Safe |
49% | – |
| Glasgow Pollok | Humza Yousaf SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 6,482 23.2% Safe |
46% | – |
| Airdrie and Shotts | Alex Neil SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 6,192 23.3% Safe |
49% | – |
| Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire | John Lamont Con no longer an MSP |
SNP | 7,736 23.4% Safe |
61% | – |
| Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn | Bob Doris SNP | Labour | 5,602 23.7% Safe |
44% | – |
| Kirkcaldy | David Torrance SNP | Labour | 7,395 23.8% Safe |
53% | – |
| Renfrewshire North and West | Derek Mackay SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 7,373 23.9% Safe |
61% | – |
| Almond Valley | Angela Constance SNP | Labour | 8,393 24.1% Safe |
54% | – |
| Linlithgow | Fiona Hyslop SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 9,335 24.3% Safe |
54% | – |
| Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch | Kate Forbes SNP no longer an MSP |
Lib Dem | 9,043 24.8% Safe |
62% | – |
| Falkirk East | Angus MacDonald SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 8,312 25.6% Safe |
54% | – |
| Clydebank and Milngavie | Gil Paterson SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 8,432 25.7% Safe |
60% | – |
| Greenock and Inverclyde | Stuart McMillan SNP | Labour | 8,230 25.9% Safe |
58% | – |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar | Dr Alasdair Allan SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 3,496 26.5% Safe |
61% | – |
| Cunninghame North | Kenneth Gibson SNP | Conservative | 8,724 27.3% Safe |
58% | – |
| Inverness and Nairn | Fergus Ewing SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 10,857 28.3% Safe |
58% | – |
| Glasgow Shettleston | John Mason SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 7,323 28.9% Safe |
44% | – |
| Mid Fife and Glenrothes | Jenny Gilruth SNP | Labour | 8,276 29.0% Safe |
54% | – |
| Glasgow Cathcart | James Dornan SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 9,390 30.7% Safe |
51% | – |
| East Kilbride | Linda Fabiani SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 10,979 31.7% Safe |
57% | – |
| Dundee City West | Joe FitzPatrick SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 8,828 31.8% Safe |
52% | – |
| Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley | Willie Coffey SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 11,194 32.6% Safe |
55% | – |
| Cumbernauld and Kilsyth | Jamie Hepburn SNP | Labour | 9,478 33.5% Safe |
57% | – |
| Falkirk West | Michael Matheson SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 11,280 35.2% Safe |
54% | – |
| Aberdeen Donside | Mark McDonald SNP no longer an MSP |
Conservative | 11,630 37.5% Safe |
51% | – |
| Dundee City East | Shona Robison SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 10,898 38.3% Safe |
52% | – |
| Glasgow Southside | Nicola Sturgeon SNP no longer an MSP |
Labour | 9,593 38.5% Safe |
48% | – |
| Orkney | Liam McArthur LD | SNP | 4,534 43.0% Safe |
62% | – |
| Shetland | Tavish Scott LD no longer an MSP |
SNP | 4,895 44.3% Safe |
62% | – |
"Majority smaller than" lists parties outside the top two whose vote exceeded the winning majority: if enough of their voters switched, the seat could change hands. The published results combine all independent candidates in a seat into one "Independents" figure. Majority as a share of valid votes; turnout as published. Source: Electoral Management Board for Scotland, 5 May 2016 results.