Written Question · S6W-17060 · Session 6
What assessment it has undertaken of any economic impact on Scotland of the UK joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Tran…
The question
To ask the Scottish Government what assessment it has undertaken of any economic impact on Scotland of the UK joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, broken down by local authority area.
The answer
In our engagement with the UK Government on accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), as with all developing trade agreements, the Scottish Government has consistently requested an assessment of the economic impacts on Scotland. We believe that before embarking on the negotiation of such agreements, the UK Government should be fully aware of their likely impacts across all parts of the UK.
As part of its Strategic Approach to accession to the CPTPP the UK Government produced a Scoping Assessment covering the UK-wide economic benefits expected as part of membership of the trade pact. This analysis suggested that CPTPP membership will result in a long-term increase of 0.08% in UK GDP.
While the UK Government’s Scoping Assessment does consider regional value added, and suggests an indicative change of £163 million in Scotland, or a 0.12% benefit in regional value added, this analysis is not disaggregated to local authority level. Nor is there any information on the expected impacts on employment or on expected changes to sectoral output at a Scotland-specific level. This limits our capacity to understand the potential impacts of this agreement in Scotland.
Data currently available does not allow the Scottish Government to undertake such an assessment itself, however in line with commitments in our Vision for Trade, we are working to gather evidence to better understand the impacts of trade across our society and economy. We recognise that trade has a net positive effect but that increased openness to trade can create “winners” and “losers”, including across particular local authorities and groups. In line with this commitment the Scottish Government has been building our evidence base on trade impacts and we are considering how to further improve the data available to us on this and the options we can take forward to address these differential impacts of trade.
As part of its Strategic Approach to accession to the CPTPP the UK Government produced a Scoping Assessment covering the UK-wide economic benefits expected as part of membership of the trade pact. This analysis suggested that CPTPP membership will result in a long-term increase of 0.08% in UK GDP.
While the UK Government’s Scoping Assessment does consider regional value added, and suggests an indicative change of £163 million in Scotland, or a 0.12% benefit in regional value added, this analysis is not disaggregated to local authority level. Nor is there any information on the expected impacts on employment or on expected changes to sectoral output at a Scotland-specific level. This limits our capacity to understand the potential impacts of this agreement in Scotland.
Data currently available does not allow the Scottish Government to undertake such an assessment itself, however in line with commitments in our Vision for Trade, we are working to gather evidence to better understand the impacts of trade across our society and economy. We recognise that trade has a net positive effect but that increased openness to trade can create “winners” and “losers”, including across particular local authorities and groups. In line with this commitment the Scottish Government has been building our evidence base on trade impacts and we are considering how to further improve the data available to us on this and the options we can take forward to address these differential impacts of trade.
In the Official Report
No contribution in the Official Report cites S6W-17060 by reference.